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Week of Nov 25 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

November 28th, 2016

“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” – John Bogle, founder of Vanguard

1. China and Russia Push For Free Trade in Asia-Pacific — China and Russia will push for a free-trade area in the Asia-Pacific region, China’s foreign ministry said after leaders of the two nations met during the APEC summit in Peru. The call for free trade in the region comes amid a protectionist mood in the U.S. following the election of Donald Trump, who is threatening to derail the TPP deal that excludes the world’s second-biggest economy
2. FDA Lifts Partial Clinical Hold on AstraZeneca H&N studies — U.S. officials have given a green light for two clinical trials testing AstraZeneca’s (NYSE:AZN) immunotherapy drug durvalumab in head and neck cancer to resume recruiting patients, lifting a hold imposed following cases of bleeding. News of the partial hold on the trials, imposed at the end of last month, had spooked investors since durvalumab is AstraZeneca’s most important pipeline medicine.
3. Stock Averages Hit Records & Dow Tops 19K — the four major U.S. stock market benchmarks again hit all-time highs, with the Dow closing above 19,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 also finishing above 2,200 for the first time, and the Russell 2000 ending higher for the 13th straight day. Treasury prices were little changed with the two-year yield finishing flat at 1.08% while the yield on the benchmark 10-year note slipped a basis point to 2.31%.
4. Black Friday Continues To Move Online — Black Friday isn’t as big as it once was due to earlier holiday deal hysteria, but it’s still a very significant day for retail. The National Retail Federation expects 137.4M Americans to hit stores at some point over the weekend, and around 74% of that population already went shopping on Thanksgiving Day. That’s about on par with last year’s figures as online sales become a bigger part of the holiday.

Week of Nov 18 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

November 21st, 2016

“We want to perceive ourselves as winners, but successful traders are always focusing on their losses” – Peter Borish”

1. Trump Administration: Priebus, Bannon Given Key Roles — U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has made the first official appointments to his White House administration after a shake-up that saw VP-elect Mike Pence replace Chris Christie as the head of his transition team. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has been selected as Chief of Staff, while Trump’s campaign Chairman and former head of news outlet Breitbart, Steve Bannon, will lead as Chief Strategist and Senior Counsel.
2. US Retail Sales Rose 0.8% in Oct vs. 0.6% Increase Expected — the Commerce Department reported retail sales increased 0.8 percent last month, also boosted by demand for building materials likely as households cleaned up and made repairs in the wake of Hurricane Matthew. The latest figure shows households bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods. September retail sales were revised up to show a 1.0 percent increase instead of the previously reported 0.6 percent rise. The combined September and October sales gain was the largest two-month rise since early 2014.
3. Buffett Buys Airlines In Latest 3Q Holdings — After famously shunning the airline industry, his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) invested $1.2B in American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta (NYSE:DAL), United Continental (NYSE:UAL) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV). The Sage of Omaha did not share his rationale behind the trades, but he has long been bearish on the sector.
4. SEC approves Consolidated Audit Trail – despite years of delays, the SEC has finally approved a plan to introduce a vast surveillance system to oversee trading on the $23T U.S. stock market, in response to the 2010 “Flash Crash.” The creation of a Consolidated Audit Trail will establish a regulatory central database and monitor every trade order, execution, modification and cancellation in real-time.
5. AAII’s Weekly Bullish Sentiment — After a record 54 weeks where the AAII’s weekly bullish sentiment reading was below 40%, the Sentiment surged above 40% for the first time since October 2015 after Trump was elected.

The bearish sentiment also declined this week, falling from 29.3% down to 26.6%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Nov 11 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

November 14th, 2016

“Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon” — Jesse Livermore

1. China Names New Finance Chief — China has appointed a new finance minister, Xiao Jie, as concerns grow over the country’s rising fiscal deficits and mounting debt, which has jumped to more than 250% of GDP. WSJ reports China is also considering allowing Wall Street banks to run their own investment-banking businesses on the mainland, dropping a requirement for U.S. banks to operate as minority partners in local joint ventures.
2. Commerce Department Opens New Chinese Steel Probe — the U.S. Commerce Department has formally opened a China steel tariff-dodging probe. A petition filed in September by ArcelorMittal (MT), Nucor (NYSE:NUE), AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) alleged that Chinese steelmakers shipped metal to Vietnam, made enough changes to it that they could then classify it as Vietnamese, and then shipped it to the U.S. under lower tariffs.
3. S&P Affirms U.S. Credit Ratings — Standard & Poor’s has given the all-clear to America’s credit rating, affirming it at ‘AA+’ with a stable outlook. “We assume the longstanding institutional strengths and robust checks and balances of the U.S. will support policy execution in a Trump administration, despite the president-elect’s lack of experience in public office,” the ratings agency said. Moody’s announced in September the election wouldn’t impact its ‘AAA’ rating for the U.S.
4. Trump Claims Victory Amid Roiling Markets — Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States, beating his opponent Hillary Clinton as well as a raft of pre-election polls. “Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division,” he said in a victory speech, calling on all Americans to come together. The GOP also kept control of both the Senate and the House, giving the party greater freedom to implement its policy platform.
— Donald Trump’s victory sets the stage for a series of radical policy reversals both at home and abroad. –
Banks: the core assumption the Fed will raise interest rates soon and follow with further gradual hikes over coming years will be called into question. Trump wants to spur bank lending by dismantling Dodd-Frank regulations.
Auto Sector & Trade: the industry has bet billions of dollars on globalized production and higher fuel efficiency, but Trump has been talking about moves to effectively re-shore jobs to the United States and has called climate change a hoax. The president-elect also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership and called for fundamental changes to the NAFTA pact with Mexico and Canada. Related stocks: TM -3.9%, F -1.1%, GM -0.4%, FCAU -0.4%, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, OTCPK:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXF, TTM
Healthcare: the weakest sector this year may become winners as Obamacare reforms are set to be “repealed and replaced” and major legislation Clinton proposed is unlikely to be imposed on drugmakers. While Trump hasn’t set out a comprehensive alternative to the Affordable Care Act (which may see 22M Americans lose current coverage), he said he’ll encourage competition between markets in different states. Related tickers: MYL +5.8%, NVS +3.4%, SNY +2.9%, AZN +2.4%, GSK +1.9%, PFE +1.8%, CELG +1%, ABBV, MRK, BMY, LLY, JNJ, ABT, ACET, ZTS, BIIB, REGN, UNH, AET, ANTM, CI, HUM, WCG, CNC, MOH, GTS, HQY
Defense: Trump has called for eliminating the sequester on defense spending and initiate a military buildup, boosting troop levels and the number of ships and aircraft. He seeks to fully offset the cost through “common sense reforms that eliminate government waste and budget gimmicks” and from additional payments from countries where the U.S. has military bases, including Germany, Saudi Arabia and Japan. Related tickers: LMT +4.5%, RTN +1.7%, GD, BA, NOC, OA, HII, HON, UTX, ITT, TXT, LLL, COL
Tax Policy: Trump also call for a repatriation holiday of 10% for the more than two trillion dollars in corporate cash parked overseas is now closer to reality. He has also promised the biggest tax revolution since Ronald Reagan, pledging that no American business would pay more than 15% of their profits in tax, compared with a current maximum of 35%. Top 10 U.S. companies with cash overseas: MSFT -2.1%, GE -1.5%, AAPL -1.7%, PFE +4.5%, IBM -1.1%, MRK +1.5%, GOOG -2.2%, GOOGL -1.7%, CSCO -2.2%, JNJ, XOM
Immigration: One of the biggest beneficiaries might be Mexican cement company Cemex (NYSE:CX). Trump has campaigned to build a wall on the Mexican border and immediately begin the process of deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records. Private prison and detention center stocks are also getting a big boost.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Nov 4 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

November 7th, 2016

“If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” Bernard Baruch

1. No Oil Output Deal for Non-OPEC Producers — Non-OPEC producers made no specific commitment on to join OPEC in limiting oil output levels to prop up prices – a stance that suggests they want the group to first solve its differences. A day earlier, OPEC members themselves were unable to agree on how to implement a deal to limit production amid objections by Iran which has been reluctant to even freeze its output. Discussions will continue late next month, just days ahead of the upcoming OPEC meeting on Nov. 30.
2. 2016 Presidential Election — over 23M votes have already been cast in the 2016 Presidential Election nationwide, with 11.5M submitted in 12 key battleground states. Democratic-affiliated voters have so far outpaced Republican voters in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, but in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, Republican-affiliated voters have overtaken Democrats.
3. Valeant ex-CEO and ex-CFO Focus Of Criminal Probe — Bloomberg news reported that ex-CEO Michael Pearson and ex-CFO Howard Schiller are the focus of a DOJ fraud investigation. According to Bloomberg, the nature of the charges are related to the company’s hidden ties to now-defunct Philidor, a specialty pharmacy that used dubious tactics to increase insurance reimbursements for Valeant (NYSE:VRX) products.
4. Volvo S90 Production Moves to China — Volvo Cars is moving S90 production from Sweden to China, as well as commencing production for future 40 and 60 series models in the East Asian country. Bringing manufacturing under the same roof is the latest effort to tighten ties between Volvo and its Chinese owner by transferring European know-how to Geely (OTCPK:GELYY) while maintaining the Swedish automaker’s business and reputation.
5. DOJ Charges for Generic Drug-Makers Colluded on Drug Pricing — according to Bloomberg, the Department of Justice may file charges in its generic-drug investigation by the end of the year. A number of companies including Mylan and Teva Pharmaceuticals have disclosed subpoenas and are cooperating with authorities. Shares of Mylan(MYL), Teva (TEVA) and Endo (ENDO) and Allergan (AGN) plunged after the news.
6. AAII Sentiment Record No. of Weeks Below 40% (1987-2016) — according to BIG, a record number of 53 consecutive weeks of bullish sentiments that stay below 40%. Also, the S&P 500 logged its first nine-day losing streak in almost 36 years. However, the 6- and 12-month returns following eight or more consecutive days of declines are usually positive and impressive. See charts below.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Oct 28 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

November 1st, 2016

“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.” – John Maynard Keynes

1. Eurozone Approves Bailout Funds For Greece – Eurozone officials have approved a €2.8B tranche of financial aid for Greece after the cash-strapped nation delivered the needed reforms. Those included milestones in pension restructuring, bank governance, the energy sector and revenue collection. So far Greece has received €31.7B of its €86B bailout granted in July 2015, its third since being engulfed by debt in 2010.
2. U.S. May Delay Fines On Major Banks — a series of huge DOJ fines on Barclays (NYSE:BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) and Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) for mis-selling mortgage securities could be postponed until after next month’s presidential election, Sky News reports. The delay also means RBS will likely have to account for the majority of a fine in its 2017 results, making it virtually certain that the bank will record its tenth consecutive annual loss.
3. Obamacare Rates Up 25% in 2017 — the average premium for benchmark 2017 Obamacare insurance plans sold on Healthcare.gov will jump 25% to $302 compared to this year, the biggest increase since the insurance first went on sale in 2013. Seeking to downplay the cost hikes, the administration said that including subsidies 77% of people would be able to find insurance plans with monthly premiums below $100, however, one in five consumers will only have one insurer from which to choose coverage. Not only are Obamacare premiums on the rise for 2017, deductibles will also be getting more expensive, according to an analysis by insurance comparison site HealthPocket. Deductibles for individuals enrolled in the lowest-priced Obamacare health plans will average more than $6,000 next year, the first time that threshold has been cracked in the three years that Affordable Care Act marketplaces have been in business. Families enrolled in the bronze plans will average deductibles of $12,393.
4. ECB ’s Draghi Hits Back At Stimulus Critics — in a speech at a think-tank event in Berlin, ECB President Mario Draghi defended his of policy of ultra-low rates, but voiced concern about “distortions that can result” if they are “in place for too long.” He also declared victory in the bank’s fight against deflation, saying the ECB had “succeeded” in removing the threat of a vicious spiral of falling prices and ever weaker demand.
5. US Advance Q3 Gross Domestic Product Up 2.9%, vs 2.5% Increase Expected — US Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate after rising at a 1.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 2.1 percent rate. Spending was held back by a decline in purchases of goods. A surge in soybean exports helped to shrink the trade deficit in the third quarter. Exports increased at a 10 percent rate, the biggest rise since the fourth quarter of 2013.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Oct 21 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

October 24th, 2016

‘If you are going to be wrong, be wrong quickly with a de minimis loss of capital’.” — unknown

1. Shakeout Comes To U.S. Restaurant Chains — in just one recent week alone, three restaurant companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection – Cosi (OTCPK:COSIQ), Rita Restaurant (Don Pablo) and Garden Fresh Corp. (Souplantation, Sweet Tomatoes). At least five other operators have done the same this year. Rattled by so many filings in such a short time frame, industry experts now say to expect more bankruptcies, closings, consolidations and management shake-ups. Famous Dave’s of America (NASDAQ:DAVE) is in the midst of closing many of its barbecue restaurants, and last week named its fourth new CEO in four years. Late this summer, Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT) announced plans to close almost 100 locations, and Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE) in April shuttered 27 restaurants on top of 20 closed last year.
2. Disney Dropped Interest in Twitter — Disney decided against buying Twitter recently partly due to concerns that the hate speech that’s rampant on the social network would undermine Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) family friendly image, Bloomberg reports. Another reason is that although Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) has a market cap of almost $12B. Other potential suitors to end their interest in Twitter were Salesforce and Google.
3. Chinese Growth Holds Steady at 6.7% — China’s GDP growth remained at 6.7% on year in Q3, as expected, boosted by yet more government spending, record bank lending and an over-heating property market, all of which are adding to the massive debt in the country. Industrial production slowed to +6.1% on year in September from 6.3% in August and missed forecasts of +6.4%. However, Economists Question China’s Consistent Growth Numbers.
4. Saudi Arabia Issues $17.5B Worth of Debt Amid High Demand — Saudi Arabia has raised $17.5B in the largest ever bond sale by an emerging-market country as it looks to reduce its $97B budget deficit. The government could have raised even more, with Bloomberg reporting that it received orders of $67B. The debt issue is part of Saudi Arabia’s plan to open up its $650B economy and lower its massive reliance on oil.
5. Japan Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Puts Back 2% Target Again — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said that the BOJ may once again push back its 2% inflation target, which currently sits somewhere in fiscal 2017. Kuroda started his job in early 2013 and began his turbo-charged asset-purchase policy that continues to this day, he originally hoped that inflation would hit 2% by late 2014 or 2015. Almost four years later, inflation has disappeared after an initial rise.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Oct 14 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

October 17th, 2016

“Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.” – Bruce Kovner.

1. U.S. Treasury Issues Final “Tax Inversion” Rules — the U.S. Treasury has issued final inversion amendment rules in its effort to tackle “earnings stripping” – a common tax-reduction technique employed by multinationals. The new rules also provide some exemptions for short-term loans and cash pools, and signal further business tax reforms are to come.
2. New Zika Zone Identified in Miami — florida officials have announced a new area of Zika transmission in Miami, which has already infected five individuals, and called on the federal government for funding to help fight the virus. It’s the third established outbreak in the city, a hot zone for Zika because it has both the Aedes mosquitoes that transmit the disease and an influx of travelers from other areas where the virus is spreading.
3. Fed September Meeting Minutes Show Split On Rate Hike — minutes from the September FOMC meeting show a split among many members thought raising rates would be warranted “relatively soon” if the U.S. economy continued to strengthen, but internal divisions remained over the timing of the next move. A few participants also raised concerns that waiting too long could trigger a recession, while more dovish officials wanted more evidence that inflation is firming before hiking interest rates.
4. OPEC Production Hits Record Highs — OPEC’s oil production rose to record highs in September, rising by 160K barrels to 33.6M bpd, underscoring the challenges the group faces as it seeks to curtail output. “At this stage, it is difficult to assess how the OPEC supply cut, if enforced, will affect market balances,” the IEA said in its latest monthly report. Yesterday, WTI pushed above $51/bbl after Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to join an output freeze, but not one world producer has willingly taken one solitary barrel off the table this fall.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Oct 7 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

October 7th, 2016

“The market does not know if you are long or short and could not care less. You are the only one emotionally involved with your position. The market is just reacting to supply and demand and if you are cheering it one way, there is always somebody else cheering it just as hard that it will go the other way” – Marty Schwartz

1. Pilot Program Tests Nickel Trading Increments 15 years After Decimalization — fifteen years after the decimalization of stock trading, a pilot program will widen “tick sizes” to five-cent increments rather than pennies for some stocks. The move is a bid to increase trading in those stocks, and could benefit small investors but raise trading costs, as market makers tend to profit from wider spreads.
2. UK’s Pound Hits 31-year Low on Brexit Anxiety — the pound is down to a 31-year low as concerns over Brexit continue to weigh on investors. The sterling fell to a post-Brexit vote low of $1.2749 earlier in the day. Economists expect more volatility as the complexity of an exit from the European Union plays out.
3. Fitch Sets Stage for Wells Fargo Credit Rating Cut — Fitch has cut the outlook on Wells Fargo’s (NYSE:WFC) credit ratings to Negative, but affirmed the bank’s existing rating of AA-, which is investment-grade. In an announcement, Fitch cited “potential reputational damage from the recent regulatory actions and fines,” as well as a belief that the lender could face “earnings pressure.”
4. U.K. Delivers Landmark Ruling on Fracking — the U.K. government has approved a horizontal fracking permit at a Cuadrilla site in Lancashire, northern England, in a ruling that could have far-reaching consequences for the shale gas industry. It means, for the first time, British shale rock will be fracked horizontally, which is expected to yield more gas. A ban on fracking in the U.K. was lifted in 2012.
5. Annual Fall Meetings for the IMF and World Bank — finance officials and central bankers from around the world are gathering in Washington for the annual fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The talks will take up issues including weak global growth trends, the increase of anti-trade measures and concerns that many have expressed about the financial health of European banks.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Sept 30 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

October 3rd, 2016

“One of the rarest traits on Wall Street is patience, yet patience is one of the biggest secrets of successful investing” — R.W. McNell’s book Beating The Stock Market

1. Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) Slumps On Capital Concerns — Germany’s Angela Merkel ruled out any state assistance for the lender, according to a report from Focus Magazine. Merkel also declined to intervene in Deutsche’s (NYSE:DB) legal battle with the U.S. Justice Department, which earlier this month announced it may seek up to $14B from the bank to resolve investigations into crisis-era mortgage securities.
2. Wells Fargo (WFC) Launches Probe – CEO Stumpf & Tolstedt Giving Up Pay & Bonuses — independent directors are launching a probe into the bank’s practices, and the two executives, Carrie Tolstedt, the former retail banking chief and CEO John Stumpf, will forfeit some awards. Stumpf will lose about $41M in unvested equity and temporarily forgo his salary, while Tolstedt, the former retail banking chief, will leave the company without severance payments.
3. OPEC Agrees to First Oil Output Cut in Eight Years — OPEC agreed to a preliminary deal that will cut production for the first time in eight years. Oil prices gained more than 6 percent as Saudi Arabia and Iran surprised traders who expected a continuation of the pump-at-will policy the group adopted in 2014. The group agreed to drop production to a range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day, said Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, following a meeting in Algiers. While some members of OPEC will have to cut output, Iran won’t have to freeze production.
4. India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate — tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating, with investors responding by selling assets in both countries. Following Indian “surgical strikes” on suspected militants preparing to infiltrate from Kashmir, Pakistani Defense Minister Mohammad Khwaja threatened to use “tactical” nuclear weapons to “destroy” India.
5. Sector Performance Quarter And Month To Date –courtesy of BIG, the chart below shows S&P 500 sector performance so far in Q3. Of the eleven sectors, just two are outperforming the S&P 500 (Technology and Financials).

For the month of September, the S&P 500 is down 0.5%, given that September has historically been the cruelest month for equities.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Sept 23 2016 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

September 26th, 2016

“A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.” — Albert Einstein

1. OPEC and Non-OPEC Producers Are Close to Reaching an Output Deal — OPEC and non-OPEC producers are close to reaching an output stabilizing deal, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared, a day after Iran welcomed any move aimed at market stability. OPEC members may even call an extraordinary meeting to discuss oil prices if they reach consensus at an informal gathering in Algiers this month, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said during a visit to Algeria.
2. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May Visits Wall Street Over Brexit — UL Prime Minister May landed in New York to consult with some of America’s largest firms over how her country should proceed with Brexit. The prime minister held two gatherings: a roundtable discussion with big investors in the U.K. including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), IBM, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). She then hosted a reception for about 60 American executives, as well as British businesses that invest in the U.S.
3. S&P Real Estate Sector Draws Interest – the official launch of the S&P 500 real estate sector – the first subdivision to be added since 1999. This sector is made up of 28 components. Below is a chart of the new sector courtesy of WSJ.

4. FOMC Sept Meeting — the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but Chairwoman Janet Yellen said one increase is “appropriate” this year barring any major new risks to the economy. Janet Yellen gave a fairly strong indication that a hike will happen before 2016 is over. She said the labor market is strengthening and “risks to the outlook have become roughly balanced.” The FOMC has two more meetings — in November, shortly before the presidential election, and December, where Yellen gives her final post-meeting news conference of the year.
5. AAII sentiment survey — according to this week’s sentiment survey, bullish sentiment fell to 24.83% down from 27.94%. That’s the lowest weekly reading since late June, the 47th straight week that bullish sentiment was below 40%, and the 81st time in the last 82 weeks that we have seen sub-40% readings. Charts below courtesy of BIG.

Bearish sentiment also increased from 35.92% up to 38.28%. This is the first week that bearish sentiment has been higher than both bullish and neutral sentiment as well as the highest weekly reading since the February market lows.

6. Leon Cooperman, legendary trader, Indicted by the SEC on insider trading charges –Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said he will fight the SEC’s insider trading charges against him after the agency accused his hedge fund, Omega Advisors, of trading Atlas Pipeline Partners (now part of NGLS) on private information six years ago.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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